Is the sky really going to fall tomorrow?

THURSDAY, DEC. 20: Within the past decade and riding a relentless media freight train, a voluminous body of articles, documentaries and movies have focused on a 21 December 2012 apocalypse. And with more than 300 books and thousands of websites dealing directly or obliquely with theories of imminent disaster, the hype given this prophecy is unprecedented.

However, when 2012 exits with no planet-wide catastrophe writ large over mankind, doomsday prognosticators will simply hunker down and recast a new date for the End of Times.

It has happened before.

As though there were a need for a biblical flood reprise, a handful of 16th century astrologers predicted the world would drown on 1 February 1524, and when that day came and went with barely a storm cloud, much less a worldwide deluge, the stargazers reset their prophecy to 1 February 1624.

You can't keep a bad prophecy down; it re-emerges, clad in new cloth in a new era.

Belief in an inevitable world cataclysm has become intricately woven into the cultures and consciousness of humankind. For every generation a prophet, psychic, astrologer, sect, or religion proclaims either a date for global devastation or a date for the Rapture when the good guys are divinely rescued and the bad guys get their comeuppance.

But doomsday predictions have never been the sole province of theologians. Secular prophets – including renowned 16th century mathematician John Napier who predicted the world would end in 1688, and psychic Jeanne Dixon who foresaw a planetary alignment on 4 February 1962 that would result in Earth's destruction – have floated their barges on the river of apocalyptic theories until their leaky vessels sank like a stone.

Today a new doomsday stone has been dropped into the river, and its ripples have assumed tsunami-like proportions.

The Mayan Long Count calendar stars in this societal phenomenon, with its glyphic writings supposedly forecasting universal catastrophe during the upcoming 21 December winter equinox. In other words, Mr. Claus won't be making house calls this year, or any other.

We are witnesses to a persistent regurgitation of end-of-the-world dogma that is driving many people underground - literally. The sale and installation of private bunkers has proliferated over the past few years, with survivalists (and they are considerable) preparing to shelter in these below-ground chambers the closer we get to 21 December. There is even a dating site dedicated solely to the survivalist demographic.

It’s not difficult to dismiss doomsday claimants as 21st century versions of Henny Penny, the hen who after being struck on the head by a falling acorn, ran around the barnyard clucking desperately that “the sky is falling.”

But what about the ‘prophesy’ of those ancient Mesoamerican Mayans?

Throughout the Mundo Maya – Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras – the Mayan footprint indicates a remarkable civilization. Not only were they extraordinary builders, the Maya were also astronomers and mathematicians. They are credited with developing three calendric systems – the Sacred, the Civil, and the Long Count – and it's on the Long Count, which focuses on astronomical cycles, that doomsdayists hang their apocalyptic hats.

Maurice Cotterell and Adrian Gilbert in The Mayan Prophecies: the Secrets of a Lost Civilization, claim they uncovered Mayan predictions that Earth's magnetic field will be reversed in December 2012, resulting in planet-wide catastrophe.

On the other hand, Mark Van Stone in 2012: Science and Prophecy of the Ancient Maya, contends there is nothing to suggest the Maya predicted a 2012 apocalypse.

But there is something of a middle ground, staked out by those who assert it is only the world as we know it that will end, supplanted by an era of peace and harmony. John Major Jenkins hoists this idea in Maya Cosmogenesis 2012.

History is littered with ‘prophets’ – including Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell – who foretold a date for the Rapture (Robertson predicting 1982, and Falwell 2000). Yet the Earth has nonchalantly continued its swagger around the sun, Pat and Jerry notwithstanding.

However, doomsday adherents are tenacious, with some accusing NASA of withholding evidence that global cataclysm precipitated by ‘rogue’ planet Niburu or a polar shift looms on the horizon. NASA has dismissed this doomsday business as a load of codswallop.

That the apocalypse subject will remain controversial is a given, until 22 December and we discover the doomsday fruitcake is missing the doom, not least when we also consider there were 15 end-world prophecies for 2006 that came out of the oven and failed the smell and taste test. But what else should one expect from half-baked chefs?

The willingness to embrace end-times prophets and their prophecies – be they theological or secular – has always ended in disappointment.

On 22 October 1844, thousands of Christians, their fervour fuelled by Baptist William Miller, gathered on highlands and lowlands, eagerly anticipating a parting of the clouds and Jesus' triumphant return.

They waited. And waited, until the next day dawned, when despondent and disillusioned they trudged homewards. Miller, rechecking his calculations, recast his prophecy to occur on the same day, but a year later. The Millerites, beguiled once more, congregated the next year and waited, and....

History has dubbed it, “The Great Disappointment.”

A comment by Sir Isaac Newton is pertinent: “The world may end later, but I see no reason for its ending sooner. This I mention not to assert when the time of the end shall be, but to put a stop to the rash conjectures of fanciful men who are frequently predicting the time of the end, and by so doing bring the sacred prophecies into discredit as often as their predictions fail.”

But here's the irony. Sir Isaac himself in 1704/5 predicted the world will end in 2060. Did he cast his prophecy as one of the “sacred?”

Yet, there is an upside to the 2012 prediction: You can avoid spending on Christmas gifts by telling relatives that since the world will end in December, you see no point to buying presents.

Their reactions will be, well, predictable.

• James Ziral, a Bermudian who now spends most of his time in Canada, is a freelance writer who has written for various publications in Bermuda, the United States, and Caribbean.