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Maybe the odds are slim that a UBP breakaway group can make it as a new and winning party.

So what? It's hard to imagine that such a big defection won't be a catalyst for real change in Bermuda's political structure, one way or another.

Our two traditional parties have, for far too long, existed mostly in relationship to each other instead of the community that surrounds them.

Their battles have been with the enemy - each other - instead of the problems that face Bermuda.

They have become forces of division: At a time when the country cries out for progress and healing, the PLP cannot attract a significant number of white voters, and the UBP cannot attract a significant number of black voters.

So the six UBP dissidents couldn't have chosen a better time. Dissatisfaction with the PLP leadership is at an all-time high; the prospects of a UBP recovery are at an all-time low.

The six men have enough "weight" to be taken seriously, and they aren't carrying along a lot of old UBPers to burden them with the UBP tag.

They are young enough to be new and energetic.

But the six have serious weaknesses too.

Few of them have made a significant public impression during their time with the UBP. They were mostly silent. They will have to be a lot more vigorous and purposeful to thrive on their own.

Their numbers are small: Unless they gather more public support quickly, they will wither into irrelevancy pretty quickly.

This group of six clearly isn't part of the "white establishment".

What are your policies?

But they must quickly attract some prominent support from the PLP ranks to prove they are not just a variant of the old UBP. The vague assurance we have so far - that they are backed by one un-named ex-PLP MP - doesn't give the needed credibility.

Finally, if they aim to break away from Bermuda's tradition of politics of fear and racial division, they are going to have to have lay out in much more detail the policies and programmes they will represent.

For all that, though, the six - and whoever else joins their ranks - seem certain to bring about significant change.

Even if the UBP survives, this latest blow will surely compel it to reinvent itself beyond recognition.

How can a party see each of its last five chairmen defect and not be shocked into dramatically visible change?

This six-man defection might also inspire other groups to form, any one of which might successfully rise up to become the next official Opposition or Government.

We could end up with a number of would-be parties, each struggling to catch on in some way, drawing new people into the island's political process, merging and splitting and reforming until eventually consolidating into a viable non-racial political party.

Even if none of these groups formed, or none of them gained traction and survived, the latest UBP defections are likely to nudge forward change within the PLP itself.

They may attract defectors from the PLP. They may inspire disgruntled PLP members to start their own breakaway group. Or they may simply inspire unhappy Government supporters to demand more changes from their own leaders.

With a broken Opposition offering little threat, there may be little incentive for the PLP to change.

But by the same token, a weak Opposition gives little excuse for the PLP not to change, and insist on rigid party discipline.

Even if PLP members don't get rebellious, the party's role is certain to change without the UBP to kick around.

The PLP was founded in large part to dismantle the ruling white establishment. It saw the UBP as the embodiment of that establishment, and did battle accordingly.

After 45 years, that mode of warfare has become a way of life. The party's instinct will be to transfer the threat of oppression to whatever new group emerges.

"The Crockwell Party is a new investment vehicle for the same, old longstanding opponents of the PLP to try and regain power," the front page of the PLP's official website was declaring this week.

But at some point - for me that point was reached during the 2003 election campaign - the "back to the plantation" claims begins to sound like paranoia and fear-mongering.

If the UBP breakaways can successfully make such claims seem ridiculous to everybody, they will have helped Bermuda politics and Bermuda society as a whole reach a major turning point.

Imagine politics in Bermuda based on policies and programmes and issues of the day. Imagine politics in Bermuda without bogeymen.

It's unheard of.

But already that day is a little bit closer.

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