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The dirty little secret, of course, is that President Barack Obama and his Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner, and Premier Ewart Brown and his Finance Minister Paula Cox, don't know if their economic plans will work.

Not for sure.

President Franklin Roosevelt didn't know either, back in 1933 when he took on the Great Depression. He tried a lot of things and then a lot of different things. Some of them did nothing and a few of them did a lot of good. But in the end it took World War II to get things moving again, economically.

And we wouldn't wish that on anybody.

The point is that each of these leaders can only do their best and cross their fingers, while acting supremely confident (because economics is such a game of confidence).

FDR famously declared: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

He had the good sense not to mention the other fear, which is the fear getting it wrong and making things worse.

In Washington, Mr. Obama and Mr. Geitner, projecting as much confidence as they can muster, have to tackle the recession head on. If they can lick it, they have licked it for Bermuda and much of the rest of the world.

In Bermuda, however, Dr. Brown and Ms. Cox have no such power and no such burden.

They cannot shape the world economy. Bermuda's fortunes will, by and large, reflect those of the United States.

So their job is to prepare Bermuda for whatever the United States and the rest of the world dishes out to us.

They can't lick the recession: They can only cope with it.

Against this background, the budget Ms. Cox delivered to Bermuda last week was mostly on the mark.

It was, quite rightly, a budget that was defensive and reactionary, without being paranoid.

It seemed to me that the budget was aimed at keeping things as normal as possible, while laying the groundwork to take more radical and expensive measures if and when the economy gets significantly worse.

We are sheltered

The budget recognizes the fact that Bermudians are somewhat sheltered from the harshest early blows of this downturn.

Many Bermudian jobs are protected, even when layoffs are made, by the fact that we have so many foreigners who can be let go first.

With no unemployment insurance system, Bermuda can shed workers at far lower cost - to the government, to employers and to society as a whole - than could be done in most other countries.

This is made possible by the mixed blessing of over-employment. Those being laid off can frequently find jobs in previously unfilled positions. (Some companies announcing job cuts have tempered the news by saying that several of those positions were vacant anyway.)

As Labour Minister Col. David Burch reminded job seekers recently, there are plenty of unfilled positions in the police, fire and prison services.

We are cushioned in other ways as well.

We have few jobs in manufacturing areas, which are traditionally hardest hit. Our banks are much less exposed to the penalties of "sub prime lending" than North American banks.

While tourism is suffering, many of our major hotels were already closed. Many Bermudians have already abandoned that sector anyway.

And while some international companies have suffered huge losses, it is hardly a scene of devastation. Some companies are doing well; most are plenty strong enough to wait for the tide to change.

So the Finance Minster seems reasonable in presenting a plan that, while assuming things will get worse in 2009, isn't based on a calamitous collapse.

At the same time, Ms. Cox does prepare for the possibility that more dramatic action might be necessary.

She has spoken about the option, if circumstances change, of returning to Parliament with a mini-budget later in the year.

And she raised the island's debt limit substantially, to $1 billion, while saying she hoped she doesn't need to use it.

This could prove important if Bermuda's economy turns worse than the Finance Minister expects. It would allow the Government to compensate for a further fall in revenue, and push forward job-creating building projects.

There is still plenty to criticize in the budget. The $2 million drop in the police budget is unsettling, for example.

And the dramatic increase in the debt ceiling far in excess of what the Finance Minister says she is likely to want is an unsettling invitation to excess spending. If she needs more later, she should come back and ask for more later.

But the overall plan is a good one.

Ms. Cox seems to be holding to a mainstream view that the recession will start to ease sometime over then next 18 months, and 2010 will see a slow start to a recovery.

Bob Richards, the UBP's Finance Spokesman, has accused the Finance Minister of "betting the farm" on the prospect of a short recession.

The truth is that nobody knows for sure. Only time will reveal the answer. In the meantime, Ms. Cox, Mr. Richards, like the Premier and the US President, and all the rest of us, must fear nothing, act confidently, and keep our fingers crossed.

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